USD/INR: Slightly tighter fiscal stance to offset end of monetary tightening to leave Rupee steady – ING

The Indian Rupee has had a reasonable start to the year, moving from about 82.70 to below 81.00 before drifting back up to around 82.00 currently. Economists at ING expect INR to remain steady.

RBI done, or close

“With inflation dropping back into the Reserve Bank of India’s target range, and below policy rates, central bank tightening is now probably complete, or at least, close to complete.”

“The latest budget contained aggressive growth-promoting capital expenditure measures, though the deficit is expected to shrink to below 6% after this year’s 6.4% target. The slightly tighter fiscal stance could help offset the end to monetary tightening to leave the currency relatively steady.”