GBP/USD sticks to modest intraday gains around mid-1.2400s, lacks follow-through
- GBP/USD regains some positive traction on Monday amid the emergence of fresh USD selling.
- A further decline in the US Treasury bond yields is seen as a key factor weighing on the buck.
- Bets for more Fed rate hikes, a weaker risk tone could limit the USD losses and cap the major.
The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buying in the vicinity of the 1.2400 mark on Monday and touches a fresh daily high during the early North American session. The pair is currently placed around the 1.2450 region, up nearly 0.20% for the day, though the intraday uptick lacks bullish conviction.
The US Dollar (USD) remains under some selling pressure for the third successive day and drops to a one-week low amid the ongoing downfall in the US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor lending some support to the GBP/USD pair amid rising bets for an additional interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in May. In fact, the markets now see over a 90% chance of a 25-bps rate hike in May. The bets were lifted by last week's release of stronger UK wage growth data and the stubbornly high inflation figures.
The Federal Reserve (Fed), meanwhile, is also expected to continue raising interest rates to curb inflation. Moreover, the markets have fully priced in a 25 bps lift-off at the next FOMC policy meeting in May and the Fed funds future indicates another rate hike in June. The expectations were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish comments by several Fed officials and the incoming positive US macro data, which suggested that the world's largest economy remained resilient and supports prospects for further policy tightening by the US central bank.
In the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases on Monday, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the GBP/USD pair. Traders also seem reluctant ahead of this week's important US macro data, starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday. This will be followed by the US Durable Goods Orders, the Advance US Q1 GDP print and the Core US PCE Price Index on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Technical levels to watch