EUR will probably continue to struggle to stand its ground against USD – Commerzbank

EUR continues to struggle against USD. This week two sets of data important for monetary policy are on the agenda in the shape of the Eurozone inflation data tomorrow and the labour market report from the US on Friday. Economists at Commerzbank analyze how these releases could impact the EUR/USD pair.

Eurozone inflation data is likely to have eased further again in May

“According to our economists, the rise in employment in the US is likely to have slowed further in May, but the significant slowdown on the labour market that would be required to dampen inflation is unlikely to be visible yet. If the labour market were to be stronger than expected again, Fed rate hike expectations might be fuelled further.”

“The Eurozone inflation data is likely to have eased further again in May. The inflation data from Spain already surprised to the downside yesterday. If there are further surprises to the downside, doubts might arise whether the ECB really will hike its key rate another two times as the market is currently pricing in.”

“As a result, EUR will probably continue to struggle standing its ground against USD.”