USD/JPY: It remains dangerous to bet on the patience of the MOF – Commerzbank

FX analysts are currently spellbound by the question of whether USD/JPY will breach the 150 mark. Economists Commerzbank analyze the pair’s outlook.

The magic level of 150 in USD/JPY

I feel sympathetic towards market participants who are not agonizing about interventions, but that is easy for me to say. Many had the idea of betting against the MOF in the 1990s and early 2000s, and many got burned.

It remains dangerous to bet on the patience of the MOF. In particular, as Minister of Finance Shunichi Suzuki is increasingly tightening the screw of verbal interventions. The MOF was ‘watching FX carefully with a sense of urgency’, he pointed out.