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4 May 2015
Japan: 2015 Q1 first preliminary GDP estimates - Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Japan Economists at Nomura, expect a qoq annualized decline of 0.3% in 2015 Q1 GDP of Japan.
Key Quotes
“We project that 2015 Q1 real GDP figures scheduled for release on Wednesday 20 May will reveal a q-q decline of 0.3% annualized (down 0.1% q-q). Real GDP in 2014 Q4 rose by 1.5% q-q annualized, marking the first move into positive growth territory for three quarters, but this was followed by a loss of momentum in the recovery, including a weakening in consumer spending.”
“We expect to see a substantial y-y increase of 3.9% in the GDP deflator for Q1 as a result of the consumption tax hike and lower crude oil prices (a sharp decline in import prices since January has provided a boost to the GDP deflator). As a result, we estimate a 6.2% q-q annualized increase in Q1 nominal GDP, with a widening gap between real and nominal GDP growth.”
Key Quotes
“We project that 2015 Q1 real GDP figures scheduled for release on Wednesday 20 May will reveal a q-q decline of 0.3% annualized (down 0.1% q-q). Real GDP in 2014 Q4 rose by 1.5% q-q annualized, marking the first move into positive growth territory for three quarters, but this was followed by a loss of momentum in the recovery, including a weakening in consumer spending.”
“We expect to see a substantial y-y increase of 3.9% in the GDP deflator for Q1 as a result of the consumption tax hike and lower crude oil prices (a sharp decline in import prices since January has provided a boost to the GDP deflator). As a result, we estimate a 6.2% q-q annualized increase in Q1 nominal GDP, with a widening gap between real and nominal GDP growth.”