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6 Nov 2015
USD going into the monthly jobs report with a bid - BBH
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, notes that the US currency is trading on a strig footing ahead of the all-important US NFP data.
Key Quotes
“There are two main considerations. First, many speculators had given up on the strong dollar story. This was evident in the positioning in the futures market, and the numerous articles in the business press arguing the dollar bull market was over. Second, the divergence story has reemerged. It is not, as some have argued, all about the ECB. Clearly, the second largest decline of sterling in H2 15 took place on Thursday in response to a more dovish than expected BOE.”
“Both Yellen and Dudley indicated that a rate hike next month was likely unless the economy disappointed. That does not seem like such a high bar for the October jobs report. The Bloomberg consensus sees a net increase of 185k jobs. The consensus also calls for the unemployment (U-3) rate to dip to 5.0%, and the underemployment (U-6) rate to slip below 10% of the first time since mid-2008. Hourly earnings are expected to have risen by 0.2%, which translates into a 2.3% year-over-year rate. Not spectacular, but at the upper end of its 3-year range.”
“The 185k consensus forecast compares with the two-month average of 139k. The six-month average is 199k, and the 12-month average is 229. We note that the government sector is adding jobs at a quickening pace. The three-month average is 29k jobs, whereas the six-month average is 20k and the 12-month average is 12k.”
“The ADP estimate, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM services employment index have failed to confirm the weakness seen in the August and September jobs reports. Still, the takeaway is that job growth may be slowing, but just not as quickly as the August and September reports seem to suggest. The revisions will prove interesting in their own right.”
“If there is no significant surprise, the market appears to have already made the adjustment to the increased prospects of the Fed's lift-off in December. Technically, the dollar has approached key areas against the euro (~$1.08) and yen (~JPY122). Unless one is convinced of a near-term break, the risk-reward might not favor extending dollar exposure on a largely as expected report. Can the pendulum swing much further in favor of a hike without a new increase in investors' information set?”
Key Quotes
“There are two main considerations. First, many speculators had given up on the strong dollar story. This was evident in the positioning in the futures market, and the numerous articles in the business press arguing the dollar bull market was over. Second, the divergence story has reemerged. It is not, as some have argued, all about the ECB. Clearly, the second largest decline of sterling in H2 15 took place on Thursday in response to a more dovish than expected BOE.”
“Both Yellen and Dudley indicated that a rate hike next month was likely unless the economy disappointed. That does not seem like such a high bar for the October jobs report. The Bloomberg consensus sees a net increase of 185k jobs. The consensus also calls for the unemployment (U-3) rate to dip to 5.0%, and the underemployment (U-6) rate to slip below 10% of the first time since mid-2008. Hourly earnings are expected to have risen by 0.2%, which translates into a 2.3% year-over-year rate. Not spectacular, but at the upper end of its 3-year range.”
“The 185k consensus forecast compares with the two-month average of 139k. The six-month average is 199k, and the 12-month average is 229. We note that the government sector is adding jobs at a quickening pace. The three-month average is 29k jobs, whereas the six-month average is 20k and the 12-month average is 12k.”
“The ADP estimate, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM services employment index have failed to confirm the weakness seen in the August and September jobs reports. Still, the takeaway is that job growth may be slowing, but just not as quickly as the August and September reports seem to suggest. The revisions will prove interesting in their own right.”
“If there is no significant surprise, the market appears to have already made the adjustment to the increased prospects of the Fed's lift-off in December. Technically, the dollar has approached key areas against the euro (~$1.08) and yen (~JPY122). Unless one is convinced of a near-term break, the risk-reward might not favor extending dollar exposure on a largely as expected report. Can the pendulum swing much further in favor of a hike without a new increase in investors' information set?”