Back
4 Jan 2016
JPY: Fundamentals offer an important caveat against getting too bullish on the yen – BBH
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, suggests that the Japanese economy continues to struggle despite the hyper-aggressive monetary policy and a budget deficit of 6.5% of GDP.
Key Quotes
“Reports that the BOJ will lower its FY2016 CPI forecast, after announcing operational adjustments a few weeks ago, can only fan expectations of further QQE in the year ahead.”
“In addition, we do not think Japanese investors have yet responded to the widening premium the US offers at both the short and long-ends of the coupon curve. The premium on two-year government money finished the year at 105 bp, having record its highest level 2008 of 110 bp the previous day. The US offers more than 200 bp more than the Japanese government on 10-year bonds. It made the highs for the year in post-Christmas activity.”
Key Quotes
“Reports that the BOJ will lower its FY2016 CPI forecast, after announcing operational adjustments a few weeks ago, can only fan expectations of further QQE in the year ahead.”
“In addition, we do not think Japanese investors have yet responded to the widening premium the US offers at both the short and long-ends of the coupon curve. The premium on two-year government money finished the year at 105 bp, having record its highest level 2008 of 110 bp the previous day. The US offers more than 200 bp more than the Japanese government on 10-year bonds. It made the highs for the year in post-Christmas activity.”