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13 Jan 2016
Chinese data shows a clear improvement - SocGen
FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, notes that the Chinese data do show a clear improvement, even if it’s just for one month.
Key Quotes
“In CNY terms, imports fell by only 4% y/y in December, vs 7.9% expected and exports rose 2.3%. The USD numbers are -7.6% and -1.4%. the import prices are a lot stronger than they look bearing in mind sharply falling import prices, though there’s less of an excuse for the underlying export weakness.
I can’t help wondering however, if the positive response to a bounce in CNY denominated export growth that is a reward for the Yuan depreciation strategy, won’t just encourage more of the same. If a weaker currency pays dividends for China, as it did for others, then chances are, we’ll see more competitive devaluation in the months ahead across Asia.”
Key Quotes
“In CNY terms, imports fell by only 4% y/y in December, vs 7.9% expected and exports rose 2.3%. The USD numbers are -7.6% and -1.4%. the import prices are a lot stronger than they look bearing in mind sharply falling import prices, though there’s less of an excuse for the underlying export weakness.
I can’t help wondering however, if the positive response to a bounce in CNY denominated export growth that is a reward for the Yuan depreciation strategy, won’t just encourage more of the same. If a weaker currency pays dividends for China, as it did for others, then chances are, we’ll see more competitive devaluation in the months ahead across Asia.”