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19 Feb 2016
EUR/USD forecast: focus on EU Summit – Commerzbank and UOB
EUR/USD has come under renewed selling pressure on Thursday, although it has managed to regain the 1.1100 handle against the backdrop of ongoing EU-UK talks under the EU Summit that ends today.
“We have seen a low of 1.1068 in overnight trading but with no signs of stabilization just yet, the current weakness could extend towards the next major support at 1.0990. That said, the down-move so far is clearly not impulsive and the odds for a move to 1.0990 is not high. Overall, this pair is expected to remain under mild downward pressure in the coming days unless there is a move back above 1.1250/55”, suggested the research team at UOB Group.
In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted spot “will shortly encounter the 200 day ma at 1.1053 and we would allow for this to hold the initial rebound. Intraday bounces should remain relatively shallow and we look for losses to the base of the channel currently circa 1.0915. Longer term we favour a break down from here also to 1.0560/1.0457”.
“We have seen a low of 1.1068 in overnight trading but with no signs of stabilization just yet, the current weakness could extend towards the next major support at 1.0990. That said, the down-move so far is clearly not impulsive and the odds for a move to 1.0990 is not high. Overall, this pair is expected to remain under mild downward pressure in the coming days unless there is a move back above 1.1250/55”, suggested the research team at UOB Group.
In addition, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted spot “will shortly encounter the 200 day ma at 1.1053 and we would allow for this to hold the initial rebound. Intraday bounces should remain relatively shallow and we look for losses to the base of the channel currently circa 1.0915. Longer term we favour a break down from here also to 1.0560/1.0457”.