US: Market participants will look to the release of the September FOMC minutes - RBS

Research Team at RBS, suggests that the market participants will look to the release of the September FOMC minutes (Wednesday, October 12 – 14:00) to gauge the threshold for action this year.

Key Quotes

“Assuming the minutes confirm the Committee was close to moving in September (three members dissented in favour of an immediate hike), the takeaway would be that the hurdle for action in December is relatively low. However, even if the minutes signal a predisposition among the Committee to act in December, the question remains whether financial market and economic conditions will allow policymakers to move before year end.

Much can happen (both domestically and globally) between now and the December meeting. For this reason, we continue to assign just 50-50 odds to a move in December, even as hawkish rhetoric from the FOMC becomes more prevalent.”