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ECB: Market attention shifted toward the inevitable exit of the unorthodox policies - BBH

Analysts at BBH explain that the ECB does not meet this week, but the market attention has shifted toward the inevitable exit of the unorthodox policies and reading between the lines and attentive to Draghi's press conference, it seems clear that the ECB is past peak QE.  

Key Quotes

“What has captured the market's attention is the sequencing of the exit.  Even before the leaked reports claiming that the possibility of lifting the deposit rate was discussed, we noted: "With the negative deposit rate of 40 bp, there is some thought that the ECB could reduce the negativity before completely ending is asset purchase program.  But this does not appear particularly likely in the next several months, and, moreover, it may look a bit different if inflation peaks, as we expect, in Q2."  

“The Federal Reserve waited for a "considerable period" after the end of its asset purchases before raising its Fed funds target.  However, negative deposit rates add a complication.  The increase in market rates may offer an opportunity to do so with minimal risks.”

 

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