US: Initial jobless claims to remain low by historical standards - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US initial claims to remain low by historical standards, consistent with the strong labor market.

Key Quotes

“For the week ended 30 December initial claims rose 3k to 250k, raising the four-week moving average to 242k. Claims data can sometimes fluctuate more during the December-January months due to swings in seasonal hiring. Incoming data point to sustained momentum in the labor market.”

“US Budget: According to the Treasury’s monthly budget statement, November posted a budget deficit of $138.5bn, slightly higher than one year earlier. The US Treasury has been carrying out so-called “extraordinary measures” since the debt limit was reinstated on 9 December. These extraordinary measures will last into late March or early April but their exact expiration, the so-called “X-date”, remains uncertain. With changes in tax policies, unusual tax collection patterns could occur during the early months of 2018. This uncertainty causes some complications for projecting how long the extraordinary measures will last. We will be tracking revenues and outlays in the weeks ahead to get a better estimate of the X date.”