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13 Mar 2014
EUR/USD broke out but not sure on the direction
FXStreet (Moscow) - EUR/USD posted the highs not seen from October, 2011 reaching 1.3948 by now.
A thorny way up
Although the pair come closer to new highs around 1.3950 area, the way up is going to be thorny, as the euro is crossing the overbought territory, and the geopolitical tension is a big factor against buying in this area. Already now we see mild retracement back to 1.3940 area. From the fundamental point of view, the European calendar is empty today, so the market focus will shift onto the US macroeconomic statistics. The retail sales data may inspire a good deal of volatility on FX markets. According to the expectations, the retail sales grew 0.3% in February after falling 0.4% in December. If the data comes up in line or better than expected, USD will be supported across the board. From the technical point of view, the pair came close to the strong resistance level at 1.3950 with strong offers on approach and option barrier. It seems likely that it will cap the short-term upside, while failed attempts to squeeze higher will trigger profit-taking correction with the initial target at 1.3887.
What are today’s key EUR/USD levels?
Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.3887, with support below at 1.3858, 1.3814 and 1.3785, with resistance above at 1.3931, 1.3960, and 1.4004. Hourly Moving Averages are bullish, with the 200SMA at 1.3815 and the daily 20EMA at 1.3771. Hourly RSI is neutral at 65. GBP/USD is attacking 1.66 support.
A thorny way up
Although the pair come closer to new highs around 1.3950 area, the way up is going to be thorny, as the euro is crossing the overbought territory, and the geopolitical tension is a big factor against buying in this area. Already now we see mild retracement back to 1.3940 area. From the fundamental point of view, the European calendar is empty today, so the market focus will shift onto the US macroeconomic statistics. The retail sales data may inspire a good deal of volatility on FX markets. According to the expectations, the retail sales grew 0.3% in February after falling 0.4% in December. If the data comes up in line or better than expected, USD will be supported across the board. From the technical point of view, the pair came close to the strong resistance level at 1.3950 with strong offers on approach and option barrier. It seems likely that it will cap the short-term upside, while failed attempts to squeeze higher will trigger profit-taking correction with the initial target at 1.3887.
What are today’s key EUR/USD levels?
Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.3887, with support below at 1.3858, 1.3814 and 1.3785, with resistance above at 1.3931, 1.3960, and 1.4004. Hourly Moving Averages are bullish, with the 200SMA at 1.3815 and the daily 20EMA at 1.3771. Hourly RSI is neutral at 65. GBP/USD is attacking 1.66 support.