USD/TRY could return to the 4.4595/4.4467 band – Commerzbank

The Turkish Lira could slip back to the 4.4595/4.4467 band following recent all-time highs, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

Key Quotes

“Last week USD/TRY briefly rose above its 4.9233 May high and (according to CQG) made a new all-time high at 4.9624 before consolidating”.

“This week we expect the 4.9233/4.9624 resistance area to cap and for a gradual decline back towards the 4.4595/4.4467 late May and June lows to be seen”.

“Below it lurks the May 9 high at 4.3746”.

“Failure at this level would push the five month support line at 4.3802 to the fore. Further down the April and the May 10 lows can be spotted at 4.2210/4.1930”.

“Above the 4.9233/4.9624 resistance zone lies major psychological resistance at the 5.0000 mark. Around it we expect the recent advance to falter, if it were to be reached at all that is”.