Canada's economic outlook looks upbeat in the near-term – Reuters poll

According to the latest Reuters poll of 32 economists, the Canadian economic growth outlook looks more upbeat in the near-term than previously estimated.    

Key findings

“The economy rebounding by an annualized 30% in the current July-September quarter, a sharp upgrade from the 19% forecast in the last Reuters poll taken in April.

Still, the quarter through June was predicted to look a bit worse, shrinking 40% compared with 37.5% predicted in a poll taken two months back. If realised, that would be the deepest contraction since comparable records began six decades ago.

That follows an 8.2% contraction in the first quarter, the worst-three-month period since early 2009, the Great Recession.

The latest poll forecast the rebound will slow in the final three months of this year, growing 10% compared with 11% predicted in April.

Nearly two-thirds of economists, or 11 of 17, who replied to a separate question said the recovery outlook has either remained the same or worsened over the past month.

When asked about the top downside risks to the economy this year, nearly all economists chose a resurgence of coronavirus cases and about half said high unemployment.

One-third said limited or slow reopening of the economy and one-quarter said lower oil prices. Crude oil is one of Canada's top exports.”