EUR/CHF: Franc to strengthen on possible energy supply stops in Europe – Commerzbank

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is likely to leave everything unchanged for now, a negative for the franc. However, CHF is set to appreciate due to risks that Europe will struggle with energy supply disruptions, economists at Commerzbank report. 

Caught between expansionary monetary policy and nervous markets

“While the SNB’s monetary policy, which is relatively expansionary compared with many other central banks, constitutes a negative factor for the Swiss franc there is the risk that the EU economy will deteriorate as a result of possible energy supply stops – which in turn makes the franc attractive as a safe-haven.”

“Should it emerge over the course of the week that the EU will impose an oil embargo nervousness on the financial markets might increase further, thus supporting the franc.”